How would the Cavs stack up against the Knicks in a playoff rematch?

These past two months have been a fun ride for Cavs fans.

Since Dec. 16 – their first game without the services of Darius Garland and Evan Mobley – the Cavaliers are 23-5. By opening up the offense and clamping down on defense, the Cavs have managed to slingshot from the No. 9 seed to the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference during that time.

But, as fans learned the hard way last year, a sterling regular season doesn’t mean much if you lay an egg in the first round of the playoffs.

Sure, the regular season is great and all, and getting a top-five seed in the Eastern Conference is a nifty accomplishment. The Cavaliers finished in the No. 4 spot last year, landing what everyone seemed to think was a favorable matchup against the New York Knicks.

Everyone, of course, except the Knicks.

The Cavs were 31-10 in the friendly confines of Rocket Mortage FieldHouse during the regular season. Unfortunately, that didn’t translate to the playoffs. Despite having home-court advantage against the Knicks, the Cavaliers were outmuscled, outhustled and outcoached in a one-sided series that quickly erased the warm fuzzies of the team’s best season since the second LeBron era.

In this multi-part series, we’re taking a look at some of the most critical factors that determined the outcome of the 2023 Eastern Conference Semifinals, and seeing if any of those might shift in the Cavs’ favor this year.

Physicality

The Knicks’ 106-95 closeout of the gentleman’s sweep in Cleveland was a microcosm of much of the series. Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 23 points, and the Cavs were absolutely manhandled on the boards. Mitchell Robinson was dominant, gobbling up 18 rebounds – 11 of which were offensive.

What’s most offensive about those types of rebounds is they create soul-crushing second- and third-chance opportunities – a kiss of death in the playoffs.

The Cavs seemed caught off-guard not only by the physicality of the Knicks but also by the physicality of playoff basketball. Apparently, J.B. Bickerstaff didn’t get the memo – or pass along the memo, if he had it – that the referees tend to swallow their whistles in the playoffs. That style of play certainly favored Julius Randle and the Knicks.

In the Knicks’ 101-97 Game 1 win in Cleveland, New York had 17 offensive rebounds – none bigger than when Randle crashed the glass and snagged the rebound on a missed Brunson jumper with 9 seconds left that helped the Knicks seal the win.

What’s changed since last season?

If we consider rebounding as one proxy for physicality, the Cavs have taken a big leap this season. Last season, the Cavaliers ranked 25th out of 30 teams in rebounds per game, at 41.1 per game. The Knicks ranked third, with 46.6 per game.

At the All-Star break this season, the Cavs rank sixth with 45 rebounds per game, while the Knicks rank fourth with 45.9 per game. That’s a promising trend for the Cavs.

The Knicks have been without the 7-foot Robinson since he sustained a stress fracture in his left ankle Dec. 8 in Boston. Robinson was leading the NBA with 5.3 offensive rebounds per game when he got hurt. Given that Randle has been hurt as well, it’s impressive that the Knicks have remained one of the league’s top rebounding teams.

As for the Cavaliers’ year-over-year improvement, it starts with Jarrett Allen. The Fro – who now holds the franchise record for consecutive games with a double-double in a season (16) – ranks eighth in the NBA with 10.6 rebounds per game. Mobley is averaging 10.2 per game. Dean Wade averages 4.3 rebounds per game off the bench.

And let’s not forget Mitchell, who is averaging a career-high 5.4 per game.

While Strus is known for his 3-point shooting, he’s averaging nearly five rebounds a game. Niang averages 3.6 boards off the bench. More importantly for the Cavaliers, the 6-foot-7 Niang brings some of the toughness and attitude that were sorely lacking in the playoffs last year. The “G-Wagon” actively seeks confrontations.

The same could be said of Tristan Thompson – a wild card if there ever was one. Until he was suspended, Thompson was playing like the frontcourt enforcer the Cavs needed to help Allen and Mobley bang around with the Knicks in a grind-it-out playoff series. Plus, he has tons of playoff experience.

Signing the 12-year veteran last September seemed like a masterstroke, and a relative bargain at $2 million. He looked like vintage Double T – a guy who has averaged 8.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game over his career (much of that coming off the bench). After serving a 25-game suspension for violating the NBA’s anti-drug policy, Thompson would return to action in the middle of March, shortly after his 33rd birthday.

The question is, can Thompson provide his trademark energy and toughness without the aid of performance-enhancing substances? If so, he could be an X factor for the Cavaliers in the postseason.

The bigger X factor is Evan Mobley.

We know he has the skillset. But thanks to his offseason work in the weight room, the 6-11 Mobley has been more assertive in the paint. I think we’ll see a different version of Mobley in the playoffs this year – a stronger, more confident Mobley who has the upper-body strength to duke it out with the likes of Robinson and Randle, if they play.

About that.

The Knicks initially feared that Robinson would be out for the remainder of the season. However, Robinson’s trainer recently shared a video of the 7-footer in the gym, catching and tossing a medicine ball. The ominous caption: “Getting playoff ready!”

While there hasn’t been any official word from the Knicks on Robinson’s return, Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau on Feb. 6 told reporters that the Knicks are “very pleased with how he’s coming along.” At that time, Thibodeau said Robinson likely would resume on-court work after the All-Star break – which is now-ish.

Randle dislocated his shoulder on Jan. 27. According to Fred Katz of The Athletic, the three-time All-Star “is already pushing to return from the injury.” In a Feb. 20 article, Katz wrote:

“Doctors have to clear Randle to play before he can compete in a practice, let alone a game. There is growing optimism inside the Knicks that a Randle return will come with time remaining in the regular season. The team’s starting power forward notoriously insists on playing through pain. But now, with the New York Knicks hoping for a playoff run, the job of the training staff and team doctors is to save Randle from himself.”

Robinson and Randle aren’t the only Knicks battling injuries.

Hartenstein, who had a cup of coffee with the Cavaliers, has been dealing with an Achilles injury. Hartenstein, Donte DiVincenzo (hamstring) and newly acquired Bojan Bogdanovic (calf) all missed the final game before the All-Star break – a 118-100 loss at Orlando. However, they’re all expected to suit up when play resumes Thursday.

Former Raptor OG Anunoby is recovering from elbow surgery. Quoting a league source, Katz reported that doctors will re-evaluate Anunoby on March 1, “and expect him to resume on-court activities not long after.”

That’s a big injury, because the 6-7 Anunoby – acquired in a trade with Toronto in late December – is a defensive stalwart.

With all that said, let’s assume the Knicks will be at full strength. After all, hoping that certain players remain hobbled isn’t a viable strategy. The Knicks beat the Cavs in five games last season even with Randle nursing a bum ankle (which required surgery in the offseason).

Advantage: Knicks

In terms of physicality, it pains me to say that the Knicks have the edge.

With Robinson, Randle and Hartenstein alone, the Knicks have the edge in size and brawn. They also have 6-10 backup center Jericho Sims. But that wasn’t enough for the Knicks, who are in hot pursuit of their first NBA title since 1973. They went out and traded for Anunoby, who, before his injury, “transformed” the Knicks’ defense.

“All of a sudden, the Knicks employed one of the world’s rare do-it-all defenders, someone who can guard all five positions, a descriptor that the basketball world throws around too generously,” Katz wrote. “Various players can switch from one through five, but only a handful can start on point guards to centers. The Knicks have one of those guys.”

The Anunoby trade also landed Precious Achiuwa, a 6-8, 240-pound power forward who has played well after seeing an uptick in his minutes in recent weeks.

Allen and Mobley will have their hands full with that lineup. So will the 6-5 Strus. At 6-9, Wade brings good size and is a relentless defender. But he has yet to develop the type of physique that can turn him into a force in the low post.

While Allen is having an excellent season, The Fro is a finesse player – not a bruiser – whose strengths are his footwork, speed and athleticism. As mentioned earlier, Mobley looks stronger this season, and he’s said in interviews that he aspires for a Giannis-like physique – which is great to hear. Mobley is the type of competitor who will stop at nothing until he achieves his goal.

In terms of physicality and rebounding, Mobley might be the only player on Cleveland’s roster who can singlehandedly shift the pendulum toward the Cavs in a potential playoff rematch with the Knicks.

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